Unrealised Millions – Don’t miss the bus

I hope there are a few people; at least a few; who will identify with this view point. For someone who was part of the dotcom boom in late 1990s; life has come full circle. Sometimes I wonder when I see online properties mushrooming; if we have even learnt from our past mistakes. Have we looked at what went wrong then; what survived and what did not? Have we covered all loopholes or have we once again given credit to our mediocre ideas? Have those people who are funding these initiatives considered all the aspects? Comparisons are inevitable. Aren’t they?

However the times were very different. Some points to consider:

• A country with 0.4% internet penetration; internet connectivity at a premium
• Exorbitant mobile tariff for just sending and receive calls; let alone browse
• Lack of fulfillment services – ranging from warehousing to delivery

The list if issues were endless. I would also want to believe that the boom of the IT services industry also led us to strongly believe that we can leap frog into the digital economy without the basics in place. We saw a very seamless transformation of the boom to a bust. Please do not ignore my sarcasm; if you haven’t noticed read it again; there is a lot of pain in it. Pain of losing money; pain of shelving new ideas; pain of not making the best of the disaster that presented itself as boom.

Here lies the contradiction. In midst of all these disasters there were some exceptional ideas that survived; got funded and sold at the right time. Some even expanded their operations. These were ideas that understood the infrastructure limitations; gave enough emphasis to counter those. They also had a sight on the future; most importantly were willing to hang in there. I think some of us gave up too easily.

The facts one should have considered

• 0.4% penetration will only go up
• Technology reforms and affordability was a matter of time
• Economy was opening up; so will the digital economy

Now when one looks back, it seems as though we are the fastest learners and we naturally adapt/modify our ideas to reflect the changing scenario. One can argue that everyone does that. If you observe carefully, you will realise we did not wait for that long to give ideas a new lease of life.

There are defining moments in every industry.

• Specific to India; it was the telecom reforms. It laid the foundation for all e-business initiatives that we see if the current shape or format
• Good rail, road and air connectivity; hence better fulfillment
• Growing appetite for the medium
• A fairly robust economy
• Adoption and availability of smart phones at different budgets
• Positive approach by the VCs
• Growth in terms of digital advertising indicating marketers were taking notice of this shift

A lot of the ideas that are currently breathing and doing well; are similar to the ones conceived during the dotcom era. I just happened to broach the topic with one of the old timers. He too felt that we were ahead of our times. It just legitimized my logic that I had/have millions of unrealised money; yes the sarcasm is back for obvious reasons.

E-commerce is almost in every category; from grocery to the highest denominator; and it is working. There are counter arguments to these; selling below MRP being one; so how will it ever be profitable? Some of these arguments come from fairly experienced offline marketers. Why? Sense of scale and bulk does not apply to online channels? To gain traction and sizeable top-line; profits have become dynamic. They are delivering on their promise. They are largely ethical. They have clear business policies. Yes there are a few hiccups; like any other business; and it is in minority. It gets highlighted as they are subject to extreme level of consumer scrutiny; which impacts their business directly.

And guess what?. Someone is realising the potential and funding these businesses even more. Yes consolidation will take place; mergers will take place – like any other business!.

The time is right to let our ideas take shape once again. We have a population which is getting younger and is more connected. We have the numbers to target when one looks at it in absolute terms. There are so many aspects of digital that has immense business potential. The time is right to think big. The time right to realise the unrealised millions stuck in our head for various reasons.